Lotteries and the Limits of Rationality

I’ve played the lottery once in my life. I was living in California, and a friend thought it would be fun if we all bought a ticket for the next drawing. And guess what? I didn’t win. This came as no surprise, because I expected not to win. In fact, any rational person who buys a lottery ticket should believe that her ticket is a loser. But oddly, this rational belief leads us into believing a contradiction. Maybe this tells us something about the limits of rationality. Winner, Winner? Here’s principle of rationality #1:If something is 99.99% probable to be … Continue reading Lotteries and the Limits of Rationality

Evidence Is Relative

I love Legos. My wife says I only wanted kids so that I could buy Legos “for the kids” and play with them. That’s false, of course. I also wanted to buy video games. But Legos were truly my favorite childhood toy.  Nowadays, one fun game I play with the kids is when we each grab a handful of Legos from the box and see what we can build. We may end up with some of the same pieces–a 2×4 brick, a 6×10 plate–but our “sets” will be unique. Thus, our creations turn out unique. There’s an interesting parallel when … Continue reading Evidence Is Relative